中国金融学术研究网
CHINA FINANCIAL RESEARCH NETWORK

银行和金融机构--银行和金融机构
工作论文
2009-07-09 第2卷 第5期

编: 麻省理工学院斯隆管理学院金融学讲席教授,清华大学经管学院特聘教授。

执行主编: 杨之曙清华大学经济管理学院金融学副教授。


本期目录

国内主要商业银行的网站质量之比较

顾海兵 中国人民大学经济学院
米强 中国人民大学经济学院

Endogenous Timing and Banking Competition in a Mixed Oligopoly:A Theoretical Perspective on the Banking Industry in China

Xiangyi Zhou Xi'an Jiaotong UniversityJinhe Center for Economic Research
Kuo-Ping Chang National Tsing Hua UniversityDepartment of Quantitative Finance
Xiaohui Hou Xi’an Jiaotong UniversityJinhe Center for Economic Research
Shengliang Ji Xi’an Technological UniversityThe School of Management

主权财富基金、宏观经济政策协调与金融稳定

谢平 中国投资有限责任公司中央汇金投资有限责任公司
陈超 中国投资有限责任公司资产配置与战略研究部
柳子君 英国伦敦政治经济学院英国伦敦政治经济学院

论主权财富基金的理论逻辑

谢平 中国投资有限责任公司中央汇金投资公司
陈超 中国投资有限责任公司资产配置与战略研究部

Sovereign Wealth Funds, Macroeconomic Policy Alignment and Financial Stability

谢平 中国投资有限责任公司中央汇金投资公司
陈超 中国投资有限责任公司资产配置与战略研究部


论文摘要

国内主要商业银行的网站质量之比较

顾海兵 中国人民大学经济学院
米强中国人民大学经济学院

商业银行网站质量好坏对银行发展影响重大。本文首先从全面性、及时性、方便性、安全性和美学性5个维度设计了商业银行网站质量评价指标体系,并运用修正德尔菲法设计指标权重。之后对我国17家主要商业银行网站质量进行评价对比,结论是中国工商银行和中国邮政储蓄银行分居首尾。最后针对我国商业银行网站目前存在的缺点,提出简化主页设计,科学分类导航,保护客户信息,创新服务模式和提高科技含量等对策。

Endogenous Timing and Banking Competition in a Mixed Oligopoly:A Theoretical Perspective on the Banking Industry in China

Xiangyi Zhou Xi'an Jiaotong UniversityJinhe Center for Economic Research
Kuo-Ping Chang National Tsing Hua UniversityDepartment of Quantitative Finance
Xiaohui Hou Xi’an Jiaotong UniversityJinhe Center for Economic Research
Shengliang Ji Xi’an Technological UniversityThe School of Management

Based on the background of the banking industry in China, this paper establishes Cournot, Bertrand and Stackelberg mixed oligopoly competition models with deposit and interest rates as strategic variables between a representative state-owned bank and a representative foreign bank. We discuss and compare the equilibrium deposits, interest rates and profits in different market structures. More importantly, considering the endogenous timing setup and taking the extended game with observable delay as the basic model, we analyze the competition results of the mixed duopoly at different market structures and make numerical simulations in order to get the outcomes of the extended game. It is found that, in the deposit competition with endogenous timing, if two banks have the same deposit return rate, the simultaneous move could become the final result; If the deposit return of the foreign bank is more than twice that of the state-owned bank, all SPNEs of the extended game are sequential, i.e one bank will lead, the other will follow. If the state-owned bank’s profit in Cournot is larger than that of the state-owned bank as the Stackelberg follower, the only SPNE will be (E, L), i.e. the state-owned bank will lead and the foreign bank will follow. Additionally, in the interest rate competition with endogenous timing, if the degree of nationalization is no larger than 75% as well as two banks have the same deposit return rate, the final SPNEs of the extended game are sequential and the simultaneous move can not become the SPNE.

主权财富基金、宏观经济政策协调与金融稳定

谢平中国投资有限责任公司中央汇金投资有限责任公司
陈超中国投资有限责任公司资产配置与战略研究部
柳子君 英国伦敦政治经济学院英国伦敦政治经济学院

本文首先探讨了主权财富基金与宏观经济政策的协调,提出主权财富基金可成为财政政策一个行之有效地政策工具;主权财富基金的投资应与货币当局进行充分的协调,其投资对稳定汇率有一定作用;主权财富基金有利于提高国家资产负债表的稳定性;主权财富基金的资产配置对于本国以及投资国的国际收支平衡表中的经常账户和资本账户都有重要的影响。其次,本文探讨了主权财富基金对全球金融市场及其稳定性的影响,主要包括主权财富基金的风险偏好对资产价格的影响、对全球资产风险-收益组合的影响以及对股票风险溢价的影响以及对金融市场稳定性的影响。本文认为,主权财富基金对世界金融市场可能带来的负面影响是很有限的,它是全球金融市场的重要稳定力量。主权财富基金对内有利于宏观经济政策的协调,对外有利于全球金融市场的稳定。

论主权财富基金的理论逻辑

谢平中国投资有限责任公司中央汇金投资公司
陈超中国投资有限责任公司资产配置与战略研究部

主权财富基金是国际金融市场一类崭新的有影响力的机构投资者。全球的主权财富基金的现有规模大概在3万亿美元左右。其规模还将继续不断增长。从主权财富基金兴起的原因看,首先,国际货币体系的变革是主权财富基金兴起的根本原因;其次,能源价格上涨是导致主权财富基金规模扩张的重要原因;最后,经济全球化为主权财富基金的运作提供了良好的环境。根据“国家经济人模型”,国家在经济发展的初期和高增长阶段,外汇储备迅速增加,国家逐步将盈余财富用于投资。然而,随着生产要素的消耗,国家积累的财富逐步达到顶峰。当国家经济进入富裕导向阶段或稳定低增长阶段时,国家需要消费积累的财富,投资也倾向于无风险资产。目前看,各国设立主权财富基金主要有五方面目标:(1)跨期平滑国家收入;(2)协助中央银行分流外汇储备;(3)跨代平滑国家财富;(4)预防国家社会经济危机;(5)支持国家发展战略。

Sovereign Wealth Funds, Macroeconomic Policy Alignment and Financial Stability

谢平中国投资有限责任公司中央汇金投资公司
陈超中国投资有限责任公司资产配置与战略研究部

This paper firstly discusses alignment of SWFs with macroeconomic policy. We believe that SWFs can become an effective tool for fiscal policy; SWF investments should be made in alignment with the monetary authority, and help stabilize the exchange rate. SWFs also contribute to stability of the national balance sheet. Asset allocation of SWFs has significant impacts on the current and capital accounts of both domestic and international balance sheets. Secondly, this paper explores the impacts of SWFs on the global financial market and its stability, including those on asset bubbles, equity risk premium and financial market stability. We argue that the potential negative impact of SWFs on the global financial market is very limited, and that they are important stabilizing forces in the global financial market. We believe that SWFs contribute to the coordination of macroeconomic policy from a domestic point of view and to the stability of global financial market from an international point of view.


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