CHINA FINANCIAL RESEARCH NETWORK
2012-06-12 第5卷 第1期
Swee Sum Lam
National University of SingaporeNUS Business School
Massey UniversitySchool of Economics and Finance
University of Central FloridaDepartment of Finance
David C. Donald
The Chinese University of Hong KongLaw School
Swee Sum Lam National University of SingaporeNUS Business School
What are the effects of policy reversals which were initiated by the US bureaucracy in response to the 2008 global financial crisis? Answering this question is challenging because US capital markets are relatively mature and policy reversals are far and in between in recent years. Specifically, the challenges include the one-time nature of these US policy reversals, the confounding effects of many programs targeting interrelated segments of the capital markets at the same time as well as possible endogeneity issues. China, on the other hand, offers a natural experiment to study the effects of policy reversals. In the last three decades, the Chinese government has initiated many policy changes to liberalize the capital markets and some of these have been reversed several times. Using hand-collected data of policy reversals targeting the Chinese stock markets from 1994 through 2009, we are able to address the first two challenges. To resolve any endogeneity issue, we focus on the impact of such policy reversals (targeted at the Chinese stock markets) on the Chinese repo markets, which trade market-driven interest rates. We find that the Chinese policy reversals are indeed effective in reducing the term spread, the volatility of the interest rate, and the volatility of the term spread. Our results suggest that the policy risk is systematically priced in financial securities, implying that policy makers can rely on financial market indicators to objectively evaluate their policy decisions.
Saqib Sharif Massey UniversitySchool of Economics and Finance
China?s recent removal of short selling and margin trading bans on selected stocks enables testing of the relative effect of margin trading and short selling. We find the prices of the shortable stocks decrease, on average, relative to peer A-shares and cross-listed H-shares, suggesting that short selling dominates margin trading effects. However, there is negligible short sales activity and contrary to the regulators? intention, and recent empirical evidence, liquidity declines and bid-ask spreads increase in these shortable stocks. Consistent with Ausubel (1990), together these results imply uninformed-investors avoid these stocks to reduce the risk of trading with informed-investors.
Song Wang University of Central FloridaDepartment of Finance
Using the introduction of margin trading in China, this study examines the effects of margin trading on the informativeness of trades and stock market liquidity. Using the methodology of Hasbrouck (1991 and 1993), I find that allowing investors to trade on margin leads to more informed trading. This increase in informed trading is mirrored by an increase in the adverse selection component of the bid-ask spread and a decrease in the relative weight placed on public information in trading decision. The discussed findings are more pronounced for stocks with relatively high levels of margin trading. Overall, the findings in the paper suggest that margin trading may lead to more information-based trading and lower levels of stock market liquidity.
David C. Donald The Chinese University of Hong KongLaw School
This is a contribution to a conference volume for the 2010 National University of Singapore Symposium on ―Law and Development in China - The Legal Dimension of China’s Development Model.‖ The paper aims to shed some light on the way forward for the Chinese securities markets. It examines the desirability of financial markets for broader economic development, and presents the national market system implemented by the US and the norms in the EU’s MiFID that promote competition among and integration of securities markets and alternative trading venues. The paper assesses the current state of the Chinese securities markets, where according to law trading is concentrated on traditional exchanges, against the backdrop of the rapidly evolving (disintegrating) US and EU markets. Clearly, China will be able to learn much from the experiences of the US and EU, but the route that China will take for further evolution of its national market for securities can at this point be neither predicted nor projected.
本文采用四种方法来测度中国公司债的非流动性, 考察了公司债层面、市场层面影响中国公司债非 流动性的因素, 最后讨论了公司债非流动性、权益波动率、印花税调整等因素对公司债风险溢价的影响. 研究 发现, Amihud (2002)是衡量中国公司债非流动性较有效的方法. 在截面上只有Amihud (2002)非流动性测度 对公司债风险溢价有正的显著影响. 此外, 公司权益波动率和2008年的两次印花税调整对公司债风险溢价有正 的稳健显著影响. 在控制了信用风险后, 公司年化权益波动率提高10个百分点, 公司债风险溢价大约提高45个 基点; 2008年的两次印花税调整对公司债风险溢价有正的显著影响, 2008年4月24日、2008年9月19日印花税 调整后, 债券投资者比调整之前多要求大约50、60个基点的额外风险补偿.
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