Capital Scarcity and Industrial Decline: Evidence from 172 Real Estate Booms in China
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发布日期:2021年12月25日 上次修订日期:2022年03月09日

摘要

In geographically segmented credit markets, local real estate booms can divert capital away from manufacturing firms, create capital scarcity, increase local real interest rates, lower real wages, and cause underinvestment and relative decline in the industrial sector. Using exogenous variation in the administrative land supply across 172 Chinese cities, we show that the predicted variation in real estate prices does indeed cause substantially higher capital costs for manufacturing firms, reduce their bank lending, lower their capital intensity and labor productivity, weaken firms' financial performance, and reduce their TFP growth by economically significant magnitudes. This evidence highlights macroeconomic stability concerns associated with real estate booms.

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Harald Hau ; Difei Ouyang ; Capital Scarcity and Industrial Decline: Evidence from 172 Real Estate Booms in China (2021年12月25日)http://www.cfrn.com.cn//lw/yhyjrjg/fdcjrlw/9abd6606bc6e4f4c8ede42c9ff266c6d.htm

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