摘要

We analyze return predictability for the Chinese stock market, including the aggregate market portfolio and the components of the aggregate market, such as portfolios sorted on industry, size, book-to-market and ownership concentration. Considering a variety of economic variables as predictors, both in-sample and out-of-sample tests highlight significant predictability in the aggregate market portfolio of the Chinese stock market and substantial differences in return predictability across components. Among industry portfolios, Finance and insurance, Real estate, and Service exhibit the most predictability, while portfolios of small-cap and low ownership concentration firms also display considerable predictability. Two key findings provide economic explanations for component predictability: (i) based on a novel out-of-sample decomposition, time-varying macroeconomic risk premiums captured by the conditional CAPM model largely account for component predictability; (ii) industry concentration and market capitalization significantly explain differences in return predictability across industries, consistent with the information-flow frictions emphasized by Hong, Torous, and Valkanov (2007).

论文统计数据

  • 浏览次数:

  • 下载次数:

    230

相关文献

Fuwei Jiang ; David E. Rapach ; Jack K. Strauss ; Jun Tu ; Guofu Zhou ; How Predictable Is the Chinese Stock Market? (2011年03月13日)http://www.cfrn.com.cn//lw/zbsc/zcdjlw/3436.htm

选择要认领的作者
真实姓名
*邮 箱
身份验证
确认
取消